Posted To: MBS Commentary
In some ways and in some instances , past precedent can have some sort of predictive value. 9 times out of 10 though, it’s only the sort of thing that comes up with the benefit of hindsight. In other words, a guy like me might point out how history repeated itself and say “look how history repeated itself and predicted this move ahead of time.” But instead, let’s focus on something that past precedent is actually good for: serving as a reminder of how poorly (or well?) things can go. If you recall 2013, you might remember the month of May being somewhat similar to the current time frame. Rates had been low and suddenly began lifting off at a seemingly inexplicable pace. It took the broader civilized world until mid-June to realize what markets were coming to terms with as…(read more)
Via:: MBS Day Ahead: How Much Pain Ahead for Bonds? Let’s Ask 2013
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