Saturday, February 4, 2023 | The Latest Buzz for the Appraisal Industry

MBS Day Ahead: Confronting Another Major Inflection Point; Time to Bounce?

By Matthew Graham

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The conventional wisdom regarding falling knives is to avoid trying to catch them. 2014’s bond yields have been a quintessential example. At each major inflection point, investors have reached out to bet on rates moving back up only to find they reached too soon. The last occasion was after 10yr yields hit 2.34–certainly an important big-picture inflection point . Bond markets digested a mid-September FOMC Announcement without losing much ground. By that Friday, the lack absence of any material weakness in European markets made it clear that Treasuries were offsides. Domestic bond markets quickly fell back into line. To reiterate, from a technical perspective, the visit to 2.34 may have acted as a cue for a shift in positions. In any event, it’s notable that positions became imbalanced…(read more)

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