The Mortgage Bankers Association Annual Conference is always one of the best places to figure out what is coming for the industry for the coming year. Instead of the usual mix of uncertainty and cautious hope, there was a steady drumbeat of progress from Washington, thoughtful debate about the economy, and a very practical focus on how work is changing inside lending and valuation. If you are a lender or an appraiser, the message was clear. You need to start taking on the changes in the industry now. The day to day tools of our jobs are being rebuilt around structured data and responsible uses of artificial intelligence.
The opening general session set the tone. Bob Broeksmit stated that the MBA leaders had been a part of 10% of all laws passed under the current Congress. He pointed out the unusual level of legislative activity with only 30 laws passed and credited the association with influencing three of the bills that made it into law. The headline for lenders was the new privacy law that ends the practice known as trigger leads. Fewer surprise calls to borrowers will reduce customer frustration and cut back on compliance headaches for loan officers and marketing teams. For the appraisal community, the most important policy story may have been movement on VA issues. After years of work, lawmakers approved reforms that helped thousands of veterans worried about losing their homes, and MBA is working with the agency on permanent relief tools. A broader tax package preserved several provisions that matter to households and to companies across our space, including making the mortgage interest deduction permanent. The Senate also moved a large bundle of bills designed to expand housing supply. On top of that, the MBA reported close coordination with HUD and FHFA on a slate of deregulatory steps, and ongoing talks with the consumer bureau on changes to loan officer compensation. The direction is toward clearer rules and better data, which means lenders and appraisers should expect more transparency and more consistency in how files are documented and reviewed.
The economic point-counterpoint session was lively and honest. Larry Summers (former US Treasury Secretary under Clinton and Obama) and Gary Cohn (Chief Economic Advisor under Trump) agreed that housing remains central to American economic life. Neither expects an immediate recession. Both warned that inflation pressures could linger longer than many would like and that markets may be too cheerful about a smooth glide path. Summers argued that the interest rate that neither speeds up nor slows down the economy is likely higher than many assume, and that the central bank may need to be more decisive to reach its goals. Cohn expects a careful path from the central bank, with policy rates stepping down at a measured pace while long-term market rates show less movement. They both believe productivity gains from artificial intelligence will be a key offset to fiscal strains and could help sustain growth in the years ahead. Concerns about the strength of demand for long-term Treasury debt came up as well, which is another way of saying that financing the government’s needs may not be effortless.
MBA’s own forecast backed up the middle path. The research team expects growth to be slower and the job market to soften, with inflation cooling but not to the ideal level. Policy rates may step down over time, but mortgage rates are more likely to hover near today’s range than fall to what many buyers still hope to see. Purchases remain the bulk of originations, with inventory tight in parts of the Northeast and more new supply in the South and Southwest. Originators have endured a long stretch of weak production margins, and FHA delinquencies are edging higher. The upside scenario is simple. If rates were to fall faster than expected, a meaningful refinance wave would return. The downside is more limited, which is another way of saying the biggest surprise would likely be positive. For planning purposes, lenders should assume a modest lift in volume rather than a surge, and keep capacity flexible.
The most important session for valuation teams centered on the new Uniform Appraisal Dataset and report redesign. This session included Cotality’s Shawn Telford, Citizens Bank’s John Herdering, Valligent’s Jeff Hogan, and Freedom Mortgage’s Mike Scarpa, all stressed early preparation. The short version is that this shift is not cosmetic. It replaces a typewriter-era form with a data-first file and a clear, modern report. There will be far more fields, and file sizes will be much larger. Inspection work will change as well. Instead of a quick walk-through, many assignments will require careful scanning of every room and structured capture of a long list of property details. That means more time on site, especially early on, and it means that mobile tools are no longer optional for anyone who wants to stay efficient. Panelists from an appraisal software provider, a national lender, an AMC, and a property risk leader repeated the same advice. Start now. Train review teams so they know where to find familiar elements in the new report. Confirm that your appraiser panel is preparing, and ask specifically about mobile data collection and readiness to deliver the new files. Update quality control systems so automated checks can replace manual overrides and reduce revision cycles. Educate loan officers, real estate agents, and borrowers so they know what to expect, including new data items like energy ratings and the type of internet access at the property. When asked whether the timeline might slip because some software is still being finalized, the answer from the stage was direct. It will not.
There is good news for borrowers and for back offices too. The first page of the new report presents a clean summary that is easier to understand, including the value right up front. Narrative comments live inside the sections they describe, so reviewers and consumers can follow the story without flipping back and forth. Lenders expect fewer revisions once everyone is trained, and they are building training schedules that repeat throughout the year so the habits stick. Early adopters get time to iron out kinks. Those who wait risk longer turn times and at worst case, stalled closings.
During the Market Innovation and Transformation session led by Bill Emerson of Rocket, including John Hedlund of ICE, Terry Schmidt of Guild Mortgage Company, and Brian Woodring of Newrez, Technology and consolidation were the big themes. They agreed that the industry will keep consolidating because scale helps companies invest in technology, manage compliance, and support customers at a lower unit cost. At the same time, they warned against chasing buzzwords. The smart question is not whether a tool uses artificial intelligence. The smart question is which business problem it solves and how you will control accuracy, privacy, and bias. A common strategy is to build in the areas that define your customer experience and buy in the areas where standards are emerging. Everyone agreed on one human truth. Borrowers still want to talk to a person they trust when the decisions are big.
Geoff Kramer, the financial services engineering leader at Google, showed the audience how fast practical tools are moving into production. Many companies are already seeing a return on their projects within the first year. The strongest use cases are in document intake, income and identity checks, compliance workflows, lead management, and customer support. The way to keep these systems honest is to ground outputs in the source documents, apply business rules to catch bad inferences, and show your work so users can trace every answer back to a page or a field. New conversational agents and call assistants are quietly taking over the heavy lift behind the scenes while loan officers and appraisers focus on judgment and communication.
If you boil the week down to one line, it is this. There is a lot of change coming for the industry, the economy is steady with some real risks, and the core workflows in lending and valuation are being rebuilt around structured data, transparent reports, and responsible automation. The winners will be the teams that prepare early, explain the changes clearly to everyone involved, and keep the human relationship at the center of the process.
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