Posted To: MBS Commentary
Last time we saw a Retail Sales report, the forecast called for a move back to +0.3 after the worst 2-month stretch since the onset of the financial crisis. Those two months came in at -0.9 and -0.8 for a total 2-month slide of -0.17. The previous 2-month record holder in mid 2012 only managed -0.11. But instead of breaking into positive territory, Retail Sales backtracked another -0.6. This is a report that has a good track record of motivating bond market movement. It’s hit and miss in terms of how pronounced the reactions have been, but certainly there have been some big ones. It would have been more than fair to expect the surprisingly weak showing in the last report was grounds for a bigger bond market rally. Instead, bonds ended up in negative territory by the end of the day (though…(read more)
Via:: MBS Day Ahead: Retail Sales Once Again Expected to Turn Positive. Do We Care?
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